Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2814 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2814 · TPA → DFW

departs 11:33 AM ET · arrives 1:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ 11am departures from TPA are usually not late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2814 · TPA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?