Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2844 · PHX → JAX

departs 4:09 PM MT · arrives 11:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2844 · PHX → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?