Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2870 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2870 · DFW → TVC

departs 12:31 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

TVC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2870 · DFW → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?