Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2875 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2875 · MCI → PHL

departs 5:21 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 633 ft forecast at MCI that day

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.31 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2875 · MCI → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?