Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2892 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2892 · PHX → AUS

departs 3:25 PM MT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2892 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?