Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2929 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2929 · PHX → PSP

departs 3:05 PM MT · arrives 4:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PSP?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ PSP is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2929 · PHX → PSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSP?