Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2969 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2969 · LGA → RDU

departs 7:23 PM ET · arrives 9:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

RDU (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2969 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?