Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3012 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3012 · ATL → PHX

departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3012 · ATL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?