Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3040 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 3040 · PHL → LAS

departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3040 · PHL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?