Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3130 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 3130 · BNA → PHL

departs 1:03 PM CT · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 533 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling533 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.18 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3130 · BNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?