Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3163 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3163 · PHX → PHL

departs 4:15 PM MT · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3163 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?