Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3166 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 3166 · PHL → SFO

departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 11:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3166 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?