Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3169 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3169 · DFW → BNA

departs 7:14 PM CT · arrives 9:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

BNA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3169 · DFW → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?