Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3173 LANDED 11:08 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 3173 · ORD → JAX

took off 8:19 PM CT · landed 11:08 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

JAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3173 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time