Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3179 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3179 · STL → PHX

departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

PHX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3179 · STL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?