Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3192 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3192 · ORD → SJU

departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM AT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SJU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

SJU (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3192 · ORD → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?