Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3230 LANDED 10:53 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AA 3230 · DFW → BNA

took off 9:36 PM CT · landed 10:53 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

BNA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3230 · DFW → BNA

Odds over time