Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 3259 · PHL → SEA

departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 10:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3259 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?