Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3286 · LAS → DFW

departs 4:53 PM PT · arrives 9:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±10 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.81 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3286 · LAS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?