Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 338 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 338 · PHX → ORD

departs 12:15 PM MT · arrives 6:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 338 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?