Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 388 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 388 · ORD → LGA

departs 10:20 AM CT · arrives 1:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.39 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 388 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?