Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 426 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 426 · CHA → DFW

departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 7:24 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA

Weather at each end

CHA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 426 · CHA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?