Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 443 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 443 · PHL → ATL

departs 9:58 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

ATL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 443 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?