Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 644 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 644 · DFW → TYS

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 7:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.83 in

TYS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 644 · DFW → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?