Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 651 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 651 · DFW → SMF

departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±7 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.13 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 651 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?