Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 691 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 691 · PHX → AUS

departs 7:44 PM MT · arrives 11:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 691 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?