Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 789 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 789 · DFW → AUS

departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

AUS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 789 · DFW → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?