Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 841 · DFW → ELP

departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±5 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 841 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?