Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 866 · ORD → PHX

departs 6:51 PM CT · arrives 8:36 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,067 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 866 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?