Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 890 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 890 · PHX → STL

departs 6:52 PM MT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 890 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?