Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1027 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1027 · KOA → HNL

departs 8:31 AM HT · arrives 9:19 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↓ 8am departures from KOA are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1027 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?