Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1043 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 1043 · HNL → LIH

departs 10:00 AM HT · arrives 10:41 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

↓ 10am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

LIH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1043 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?