Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1046 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1046 · HNL → OGG

departs 8:02 AM HT · arrives 8:43 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.16 in

OGG (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1046 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?