Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1051 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1051 · ITO → HNL

departs 1:59 PM HT · arrives 2:54 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ ITO usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ITO that day

Weather at each end

ITO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling733 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1051 · ITO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?