Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1053 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 1053 · HNL → LIH

departs 10:44 AM HT · arrives 11:26 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↓ 10am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

LIH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1053 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?