Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1328 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1328 · SEA → OAK

departs 11:41 AM PT · arrives 1:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,467 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1328 · SEA → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?