Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1346 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1346 · SEA → SAN

departs 11:26 AM PT · arrives 2:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1346 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?