Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AS 1411 · HNL → SJC

departs 12:30 PM HT · arrives 8:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

SJC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1411 · HNL → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?