Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1446 · SAN → ORD

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 1:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1446 · SAN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?