Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1467 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1467 · LAS → PDX

departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 1:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1467 · LAS → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?