Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1575 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1575 · SAN → SEA

departs 2:03 PM PT · arrives 5:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1575 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?