Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1601 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 1601 · LAX → SFO

departs 7:34 PM PT · arrives 8:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±7 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 63% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1601 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?