Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1610 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1610 · LAX → SFO

departs 4:25 PM PT · arrives 5:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1610 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?