Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1619 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1619 · SAN → DEN

departs 8:01 PM PT · arrives 11:30 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1619 · SAN → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?