Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1644 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1644 · BUR → HNL

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 10:00 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↓ 7am departures from BUR are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1644 · BUR → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?