Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1707 LANDED 10:13 PM MT, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AS 1707 · SAN → PHX

took off 9:21 PM PT · landed 10:13 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1707 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time