Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1725 LANDED 9:13 PM HT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AS 1725 · SEA → HNL

took off 6:45 PM PT · landed 9:13 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1725 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time