Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 204 · SEA → KOA

departs 11:27 AM PT · arrives 2:35 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 204 · SEA → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?