Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 233 LANDED 9:16 PM PT, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AS 233 · ANC → SEA

took off 5:24 PM AKT · landed 9:16 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 233 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time