Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 258 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 258 · SEA → LIH

departs 11:28 AM PT · arrives 2:40 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 258 · SEA → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?